2026 Variety Survey
Survey results from a nationally representative sample of adults aged 18+.
Key Takeaways
Section I: Technology Executive Favorability
Tech Executive Favorability
How favorable or unfavorable is your opinion of each of the following technology executives?
(N = 2,000)Note: Order of "favorable" and "unfavorable" was randomized in question and ordinal scale direction was randomized in answer options.
Demographic Crosstabs
Elon Musk (Tesla, SpaceX, X)
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Very unfavorable | 32% | 37% |
| Somewhat favorable | 20% | 14% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 10% | 15% |
| Very favorable | 22% | 13% |
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 15% | 18% |
| Not familiar with this person | 2% | 3% |
Mark Zuckerberg (Meta)
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Very unfavorable | 30% | 27% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 24% | 22% |
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 18% | 26% |
| Somewhat favorable | 17% | 14% |
| Very favorable | 8% | 8% |
| Not familiar with this person | 2% | 3% |
Sam Altman (OpenAI)
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Very unfavorable | 18% | 15% |
| Not familiar with this person | 21% | 40% |
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 24% | 24% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 14% | 9% |
| Somewhat favorable | 16% | 7% |
| Very favorable | 7% | 5% |
Tim Cook (Apple)
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 27% | 30% |
| Somewhat favorable | 26% | 17% |
| Not familiar with this person | 10% | 25% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 13% | 10% |
| Very unfavorable | 9% | 7% |
| Very favorable | 15% | 10% |
Jeff Bezos (Amazon)
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Very unfavorable | 22% | 23% |
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 21% | 25% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 19% | 19% |
| Somewhat favorable | 24% | 17% |
| Very favorable | 13% | 9% |
| Not familiar with this person | 1% | 8% |
Jensen Huang (Nvidia)
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Not familiar with this person | 32% | 57% |
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 29% | 22% |
| Somewhat favorable | 17% | 6% |
| Very unfavorable | 6% | 5% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 7% | 6% |
| Very favorable | 10% | 4% |
Andy Jassy (Amazon)
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Not familiar with this person | 33% | 46% |
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 25% | 22% |
| Somewhat favorable | 17% | 11% |
| Very unfavorable | 8% | 7% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 9% | 8% |
| Very favorable | 7% | 7% |
Dario Amodei (Anthropic)
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Not familiar with this person | 40% | 59% |
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 28% | 21% |
| Very unfavorable | 8% | 5% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 8% | 5% |
| Somewhat favorable | 10% | 6% |
| Very favorable | 6% | 4% |
Section III: Prediction Markets
Activity Frequency
How often, if at all, do you do each of the following activities?
(N = 2,000)Demographic Crosstabs
Drink alcohol
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Never | 25% | 32% |
| A few times a year | 16% | 24% |
| A few times a month | 20% | 17% |
| About once a month | 9% | 12% |
| A few times a week | 23% | 11% |
| Daily | 8% | 3% |
Bet on prediction markets
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Never | 73% | 87% |
| About once a month | 5% | 3% |
| A few times a month | 6% | 2% |
| A few times a year | 9% | 5% |
| A few times a week | 5% | 2% |
| Daily | 2% | 1% |
Gamble in a casino
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Never | 52% | 60% |
| A few times a year | 30% | 27% |
| About once a month | 6% | 3% |
| A few times a month | 7% | 5% |
| A few times a week | 3% | 3% |
| Daily | 2% | 2% |
Bet on sports with a bookie
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Never | 77% | 89% |
| A few times a year | 8% | 5% |
| About once a month | 4% | 2% |
| A few times a week | 6% | 2% |
| A few times a month | 4% | 2% |
| Daily | 2% | 1% |
Use tobacco products (e.g., cigarettes, e-cigarettes, chewing tobacco)
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Never | 60% | 70% |
| Daily | 19% | 18% |
| About once a month | 2% | 2% |
| A few times a year | 5% | 3% |
| A few times a month | 5% | 3% |
| A few times a week | 9% | 4% |
Prediction Market Familiarity
How familiar are you with prediction markets — platforms where people buy and sell contracts based on the outcome of future events, such as elections, economic data, or world events?
(N = 2,000)Demographic Crosstabs
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Very familiar — I know a lot about how they work | 12% | 6% |
| Somewhat familiar — I have a general sense of what they are | 36% | 19% |
| Slightly familiar — I have heard of them but don't know much | 32% | 35% |
| Not at all familiar — this is the first I am hearing of them | 21% | 41% |
Prediction Market Participation
Have you ever participated in a prediction market? Examples include Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, or Metaculus.
(N = 1,402) • Asked only of respondents with any familiarity with prediction markets.Demographic Crosstabs
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Yes, I currently participate in prediction markets | 13% | 6% |
| Yes, I have in the past but not currently | 13% | 9% |
| No, but I am interested in trying | 28% | 29% |
| No, and I am not interested | 45% | 56% |
Prediction Market Regulation vs. Casinos
Compared to casinos, do you think prediction markets should be regulated more strictly, less strictly, or about the same?
(N = 2,000)Note: Order of "more strictly" and "less strictly" was randomized in question and ordinal scale direction was randomized in answer options.
Demographic Crosstabs
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Much more strictly than casinos | 19% | 14% |
| Somewhat more strictly than casinos | 13% | 12% |
| About the same as casinos | 38% | 34% |
| Somewhat less strictly than casinos | 7% | 5% |
| Much less strictly than casinos | 4% | 2% |
| They should not be regulated at all | 2% | 1% |
| Not sure | 16% | 32% |
Prediction Markets: Benefit vs. Harm
Overall, do you think prediction markets cause more benefit or more harm to society?
(N = 2,000)Note: Order of "benefit" and "harm" was randomized in question and ordinal scale direction was randomized in answer options.
Demographic Crosstabs
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Much more benefit than harm | 5% | 4% |
| Somewhat more benefit than harm | 14% | 12% |
| Somewhat more harm than benefit | 26% | 23% |
| Much more harm than benefit | 24% | 16% |
| Not sure | 30% | 46% |
Section IV: 2028 Presidential — Party ID
Party Identification
Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a(n):
(N = 2,000)Demographic Crosstabs
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Democrat | 27% | 33% |
| Republican | 33% | 28% |
| Independent | 31% | 24% |
| Other or none | 9% | 15% |
Partisan Lean
If you had to pick, are your opinions closer to:
(N = 740) • Asked only of respondents who did not identify as a Democrat or Republican.Demographic Crosstabs
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| The Democratic Party | 34% | 28% |
| The Republican Party | 26% | 22% |
| Neither | 40% | 49% |
Section IV: 2028 Presidential — Democratic Candidates
2028 Democratic Candidate Favorability
Please rate your overall favorability toward each of the following potential Democratic candidates for president in 2028.
(N = 864) • Asked of Democrats and Democratic-leaning respondents.Demographic Crosstabs
Gavin Newsom (Governor, California)
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Somewhat favorable | 31% | 30% |
| Very favorable | 35% | 28% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 10% | 7% |
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 14% | 20% |
| Very unfavorable | 6% | 6% |
| Never heard of them | 5% | 9% |
Kamala Harris (Former Vice President)
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Somewhat favorable | 31% | 28% |
| Very favorable | 34% | 44% |
| Very unfavorable | 9% | 4% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 11% | 10% |
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 14% | 13% |
| Never heard of them | 1% | 1% |
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (U.S. Representative, New York)
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Very favorable | 43% | 33% |
| Somewhat favorable | 24% | 32% |
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 14% | 17% |
| Very unfavorable | 5% | 3% |
| Never heard of them | 6% | 10% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 9% | 6% |
Pete Buttigieg (Former Secretary of Transportation)
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Very favorable | 42% | 36% |
| Somewhat favorable | 23% | 20% |
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 14% | 18% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 7% | 5% |
| Never heard of them | 8% | 15% |
| Very unfavorable | 5% | 5% |
Gretchen Whitmer (Governor, Michigan)
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Somewhat favorable | 29% | 23% |
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 22% | 25% |
| Very favorable | 24% | 21% |
| Never heard of them | 18% | 26% |
| Very unfavorable | 2% | 3% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 6% | 3% |
Cory Booker (U.S. Senator, New Jersey)
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 21% | 24% |
| Somewhat favorable | 28% | 26% |
| Very favorable | 27% | 25% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 7% | 7% |
| Never heard of them | 11% | 16% |
| Very unfavorable | 6% | 3% |
Bernie Sanders (U.S. Senator, Vermont)
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Very favorable | 51% | 38% |
| Somewhat favorable | 26% | 30% |
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 13% | 18% |
| Very unfavorable | 3% | 5% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 5% | 7% |
| Never heard of them | 3% | 2% |
Josh Shapiro (Governor, Pennsylvania)
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 24% | 28% |
| Never heard of them | 12% | 23% |
| Somewhat favorable | 27% | 22% |
| Very favorable | 25% | 17% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 6% | 5% |
| Very unfavorable | 6% | 5% |
JB Pritzker (Governor, Illinois)
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 19% | 24% |
| Never heard of them | 18% | 28% |
| Somewhat favorable | 31% | 16% |
| Very favorable | 27% | 23% |
| Very unfavorable | 3% | 3% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 2% | 5% |
Mark Kelly (U.S. Senator, Arizona)
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Very favorable | 40% | 30% |
| Somewhat favorable | 25% | 18% |
| Never heard of them | 14% | 22% |
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 14% | 23% |
| Very unfavorable | 3% | 3% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 4% | 3% |
Amy Klobuchar (U.S. Senator, Minnesota)
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 24% | 26% |
| Somewhat favorable | 26% | 23% |
| Very favorable | 24% | 19% |
| Never heard of them | 17% | 25% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 5% | 5% |
| Very unfavorable | 3% | 3% |
2028 Democratic Primary Vote
If the 2028 Democratic presidential primary were held today, who would you vote for?
(N = 864) • Asked of Democrats and Democratic-leaning respondents.Demographic Crosstabs
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Kamala Harris | 14% | 30% |
| Gavin Newsom | 18% | 14% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 15% | 11% |
| Pete Buttigieg | 13% | 12% |
| Bernie Sanders | 13% | 10% |
| Mark Kelly | 8% | 5% |
| Cory Booker | 3% | 5% |
| Josh Shapiro | 7% | 3% |
| JB Pritzker | 2% | 3% |
| Amy Klobuchar | 1% | 2% |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 2% | 1% |
| Someone else | 1% | 0% |
| Not sure | 4% | 6% |
Section IV: 2028 Presidential — Republican Candidates
2028 Republican Candidate Favorability
Please rate your overall favorability toward each of the following potential Republican candidates for president in 2028.
(N = 802) • Asked of Republicans and Republican-leaning respondents.Demographic Crosstabs
JD Vance (Vice President)
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 11% | 14% |
| Very favorable | 45% | 47% |
| Somewhat favorable | 28% | 22% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 8% | 8% |
| Very unfavorable | 7% | 8% |
| Never heard of them | 1% | 2% |
Marco Rubio (Secretary of State)
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 16% | 23% |
| Very favorable | 43% | 38% |
| Very unfavorable | 5% | 5% |
| Somewhat favorable | 26% | 18% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 9% | 7% |
| Never heard of them | 1% | 9% |
Ron DeSantis (Former Governor, Florida)
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 16% | 21% |
| Very favorable | 38% | 38% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 9% | 9% |
| Somewhat favorable | 29% | 18% |
| Very unfavorable | 7% | 5% |
| Never heard of them | 1% | 9% |
Nikki Haley (Former UN Ambassador)
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Somewhat favorable | 26% | 20% |
| Very unfavorable | 9% | 9% |
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 28% | 30% |
| Very favorable | 16% | 13% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 15% | 11% |
| Never heard of them | 5% | 17% |
Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence)
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 29% | 28% |
| Somewhat favorable | 28% | 18% |
| Very favorable | 21% | 20% |
| Never heard of them | 8% | 23% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 10% | 5% |
| Very unfavorable | 5% | 6% |
Ted Cruz (U.S. Senator, Texas)
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 20% | 27% |
| Very favorable | 26% | 24% |
| Somewhat favorable | 33% | 24% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 12% | 8% |
| Very unfavorable | 8% | 8% |
| Never heard of them | 0% | 9% |
Josh Hawley (U.S. Senator, Missouri)
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 26% | 29% |
| Somewhat favorable | 27% | 16% |
| Never heard of them | 17% | 31% |
| Very favorable | 18% | 18% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 8% | 4% |
| Very unfavorable | 3% | 2% |
Tom Cotton (U.S. Senator, Arkansas)
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 31% | 29% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 7% | 4% |
| Never heard of them | 16% | 33% |
| Somewhat favorable | 27% | 16% |
| Very favorable | 15% | 14% |
| Very unfavorable | 4% | 4% |
Sarah Huckabee Sanders (Governor, Arkansas)
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 24% | 28% |
| Very favorable | 23% | 24% |
| Somewhat favorable | 30% | 21% |
| Never heard of them | 7% | 17% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 9% | 6% |
| Very unfavorable | 6% | 6% |
Glenn Youngkin (Governor, Virginia)
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 31% | 29% |
| Very favorable | 16% | 13% |
| Never heard of them | 17% | 34% |
| Somewhat favorable | 22% | 13% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 7% | 5% |
| Very unfavorable | 6% | 5% |
Vivek Ramaswamy (Entrepreneur)
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 25% | 24% |
| Somewhat favorable | 29% | 21% |
| Very favorable | 21% | 18% |
| Never heard of them | 8% | 26% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 10% | 7% |
| Very unfavorable | 6% | 5% |
Donald Trump Jr.
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 19% | 20% |
| Very favorable | 30% | 36% |
| Somewhat favorable | 28% | 24% |
| Very unfavorable | 10% | 11% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 13% | 6% |
| Never heard of them | 1% | 2% |
Tucker Carlson
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 24% | 25% |
| Very favorable | 11% | 10% |
| Somewhat favorable | 24% | 19% |
| Very unfavorable | 19% | 19% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 19% | 13% |
| Never heard of them | 3% | 14% |
2028 Republican Primary Vote
If the 2028 Republican presidential primary were held today, who would you vote for?
(N = 802) • Asked of Republicans and Republican-leaning respondents.Demographic Crosstabs
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 36% | 38% |
| Marco Rubio | 19% | 12% |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 14% | 13% |
| Ron DeSantis | 7% | 8% |
| Nikki Haley | 4% | 4% |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 3% | 3% |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 2% | 3% |
| Ted Cruz | 2% | 2% |
| Tucker Carlson | 3% | 1% |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 1% | 0% |
| Josh Hawley | 2% | 1% |
| Tom Cotton | 1% | 1% |
| Glenn Youngkin | 1% | 1% |
| Someone else | 1% | 1% |
| Not sure | 6% | 12% |
Section V: Trump and Pope Leo XIV
Religious Identity
Which of the following best describes your religious identity?
(N = 2,000)| Response | Percent |
|---|---|
| Protestant Christian (e.g., Baptist, Methodist, Lutheran, Presbyterian, Episcopal) | 26% |
| Catholic Christian | 23% |
| Spiritual but not religious | 13% |
| Agnostic — I do not know whether God exists | 8% |
| Atheist — I do not believe in God | 7% |
| Jewish | 3% |
| Muslim | 3% |
| Mormon / Latter-day Saint | 1% |
| Orthodox Christian (e.g., Greek Orthodox, Russian Orthodox) | 1% |
| Buddhist | 1% |
| Hindu | 0% |
| Sikh | 0% |
| Other religion or faith tradition | 6% |
| Prefer not to say | 6% |
Demographic Crosstabs
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Protestant Christian (e.g., Baptist, Methodist, Lutheran, Presbyterian, Episcopal) | 25% | 27% |
| Catholic Christian | 24% | 22% |
| Spiritual but not religious | 11% | 15% |
| Agnostic — I do not know whether God exists | 9% | 7% |
| Atheist — I do not believe in God | 9% | 5% |
| Jewish | 3% | 4% |
| Muslim | 5% | 2% |
| Mormon / Latter-day Saint | 1% | 1% |
| Orthodox Christian (e.g., Greek Orthodox, Russian Orthodox) | 2% | 1% |
| Buddhist | 2% | 1% |
| Hindu | 1% | 0% |
| Sikh | 0% | 0% |
| Other religion or faith tradition | 4% | 8% |
| Prefer not to say | 4% | 7% |
Pope Leo XIV Favorability
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Pope Leo XIV?
(N = 2,000)Note: Order of "favorable" and "unfavorable" was randomized in question and ordinal scale direction was randomized in answer options.
Demographic Crosstabs
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Very favorable | 29% | 28% |
| Somewhat favorable | 22% | 18% |
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 23% | 22% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 9% | 6% |
| Very unfavorable | 7% | 7% |
| No opinion / not familiar enough | 11% | 19% |
Appropriateness of Trump Criticizing Pope
How appropriate or inappropriate do you think it is for President Trump to publicly criticize the Pope?
(N = 2,000)Note: Order of "appropriate" and "inappropriate" was randomized in question and ordinal scale direction was randomized in answer options.
Demographic Crosstabs
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Very appropriate | 11% | 7% |
| Somewhat appropriate | 16% | 7% |
| Somewhat inappropriate | 19% | 16% |
| Very inappropriate | 46% | 58% |
| Not sure | 8% | 11% |
Appropriateness of Pope Criticizing Trump
How appropriate or inappropriate do you think it is for the Pope to publicly criticize the U.S. president's policies?
(N = 2,000)Note: Order of "appropriate" and "inappropriate" was randomized in question and ordinal scale direction was randomized in answer options.
Demographic Crosstabs
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Very appropriate | 31% | 28% |
| Somewhat appropriate | 24% | 17% |
| Somewhat inappropriate | 19% | 20% |
| Very inappropriate | 18% | 22% |
| Not sure | 9% | 13% |
Pope Voting in U.S. Elections
Pope Leo XIV is an American citizen. Do you think he should cast a vote in U.S. elections?
(N = 2,000)Demographic Crosstabs
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 80% | 75% |
| No | 20% | 25% |
Pope Making Vote Public
If Pope Leo XIV does vote, should he make his vote public?
(N = 2,000)Demographic Crosstabs
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 25% | 25% |
| No | 75% | 75% |
Section VI: MAGA — Self-Identification
MAGA Movement Identification
Do you consider yourself part of the Make American Great (MAGA) movement?
(N = 2,000)Demographic Crosstabs
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Yes, strongly | 13% | 10% |
| Yes, somewhat | 15% | 13% |
| No, but I used to be part of the MAGA movement | 4% | 3% |
| No, I have never identified as part of the MAGA movement | 62% | 67% |
| Not sure | 6% | 7% |
Meaning of MAGA
In your own words, what does "MAGA" mean to you?
(N = 575) • Asked only of self-identified or formerly self-identified MAGA members.Open-end responses analyzed by a large-language-model (LLM). Key themes and example responses shown below.
“Make America great again”
“Getting the US back to a place of respect and prosperity for all.”
“Putting America first”
“Restore America to what it was founded to be”
“Following the constitution and the rule of law, no matter who is involved. A return to logical, practical, and lawful governance. Election and border security.”
“Is a some kind of group that has a way of achieving together as one nation”
“Political slogan”
“Politics”
“Political identity and support for certain leaders”
“It’s a brand that built base on the political ideology”
Section VI: MAGA — Who Represents MAGA
Who Represents the MAGA Movement
To what extent do you think each of the following people represents the MAGA movement?
(N = 509) • Asked only of self-identified MAGA members.Demographic Crosstabs
Donald Trump
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Strongly represents MAGA | 79% | 83% |
| Somewhat represents MAGA | 13% | 10% |
| Does not really represent MAGA | 4% | 4% |
| Actively opposes MAGA | 4% | 3% |
| Never heard of this person | 0% | 0% |
JD Vance
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Strongly represents MAGA | 70% | 68% |
| Somewhat represents MAGA | 21% | 21% |
| Does not really represent MAGA | 4% | 5% |
| Actively opposes MAGA | 4% | 4% |
| Never heard of this person | 2% | 1% |
Marjorie Taylor Greene
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Does not really represent MAGA | 28% | 25% |
| Somewhat represents MAGA | 25% | 18% |
| Actively opposes MAGA | 22% | 20% |
| Never heard of this person | 13% | 28% |
| Strongly represents MAGA | 13% | 9% |
Tucker Carlson
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Does not really represent MAGA | 28% | 25% |
| Somewhat represents MAGA | 28% | 25% |
| Actively opposes MAGA | 22% | 18% |
| Strongly represents MAGA | 17% | 13% |
| Never heard of this person | 5% | 18% |
Steve Bannon
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Somewhat represents MAGA | 35% | 27% |
| Never heard of this person | 17% | 37% |
| Does not really represent MAGA | 19% | 20% |
| Strongly represents MAGA | 22% | 11% |
| Actively opposes MAGA | 7% | 6% |
Laura Ingraham
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Somewhat represents MAGA | 36% | 27% |
| Strongly represents MAGA | 33% | 28% |
| Never heard of this person | 13% | 31% |
| Does not really represent MAGA | 14% | 12% |
| Actively opposes MAGA | 4% | 2% |
Elon Musk
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Somewhat represents MAGA | 48% | 43% |
| Strongly represents MAGA | 35% | 41% |
| Does not really represent MAGA | 13% | 10% |
| Actively opposes MAGA | 3% | 5% |
| Never heard of this person | 1% | 1% |
Ron DeSantis
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Strongly represents MAGA | 46% | 46% |
| Somewhat represents MAGA | 38% | 27% |
| Does not really represent MAGA | 8% | 11% |
| Never heard of this person | 5% | 13% |
| Actively opposes MAGA | 4% | 3% |
Marco Rubio
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Strongly represents MAGA | 56% | 49% |
| Somewhat represents MAGA | 28% | 25% |
| Never heard of this person | 5% | 15% |
| Does not really represent MAGA | 7% | 10% |
| Actively opposes MAGA | 4% | 2% |
Matt Gaetz
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Somewhat represents MAGA | 35% | 24% |
| Never heard of this person | 19% | 38% |
| Does not really represent MAGA | 17% | 19% |
| Strongly represents MAGA | 21% | 14% |
| Actively opposes MAGA | 8% | 4% |
Ben Shapiro
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Somewhat represents MAGA | 33% | 29% |
| Strongly represents MAGA | 26% | 20% |
| Does not really represent MAGA | 20% | 21% |
| Never heard of this person | 10% | 26% |
| Actively opposes MAGA | 11% | 3% |
Megyn Kelly
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Somewhat represents MAGA | 39% | 29% |
| Does not really represent MAGA | 24% | 22% |
| Strongly represents MAGA | 19% | 17% |
| Never heard of this person | 11% | 21% |
| Actively opposes MAGA | 8% | 10% |
Erika Kirk
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Strongly represents MAGA | 42% | 45% |
| Somewhat represents MAGA | 37% | 26% |
| Does not really represent MAGA | 11% | 14% |
| Never heard of this person | 7% | 14% |
| Actively opposes MAGA | 3% | 1% |
Josh Hawley
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Somewhat represents MAGA | 38% | 23% |
| Strongly represents MAGA | 27% | 26% |
| Never heard of this person | 18% | 34% |
| Does not really represent MAGA | 16% | 12% |
| Actively opposes MAGA | 2% | 4% |
Tulsi Gabbard
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Somewhat represents MAGA | 38% | 24% |
| Strongly represents MAGA | 33% | 28% |
| Never heard of this person | 12% | 32% |
| Does not really represent MAGA | 12% | 14% |
| Actively opposes MAGA | 5% | 2% |
Vivek Ramaswamy
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Strongly represents MAGA | 36% | 30% |
| Somewhat represents MAGA | 36% | 28% |
| Never heard of this person | 11% | 27% |
| Does not really represent MAGA | 12% | 13% |
| Actively opposes MAGA | 5% | 2% |
Nikki Haley
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Somewhat represents MAGA | 38% | 36% |
| Does not really represent MAGA | 22% | 19% |
| Strongly represents MAGA | 20% | 15% |
| Never heard of this person | 8% | 20% |
| Actively opposes MAGA | 11% | 10% |
Joe Rogan
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Somewhat represents MAGA | 38% | 32% |
| Strongly represents MAGA | 23% | 23% |
| Does not really represent MAGA | 27% | 18% |
| Never heard of this person | 6% | 22% |
| Actively opposes MAGA | 5% | 6% |
Section VI: MAGA — Iran War
Iran War and MAGA Values
To what extent is the War in Iran consistent with the MAGA movement's core values?
(N = 509) • Asked only of self-identified MAGA members.Demographic Crosstabs
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| It is fully consistent with MAGA's America First principles | 23% | 27% |
| Very consistent | 30% | 21% |
| Somewhat consistent | 28% | 30% |
| Somewhat inconsistent | 12% | 10% |
| Very inconsistent | 7% | 12% |
Iran War vs. Forever Wars Promise
Trump campaigned on a promise of "no forever wars." In your view, does the War in Iran violate that promise?
(N = 509) • Asked only of self-identified MAGA members.Demographic Crosstabs
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 23% | 24% |
| No | 64% | 57% |
| Not sure | 13% | 19% |
Section VI: MAGA — Future of MAGA
MAGA's Future Direction
Which statement comes closest to your view of MAGA's future direction?
(N = 509) • Asked only of self-identified MAGA members.| Response | Percent |
|---|---|
| MAGA should remain loyal to Trump's specific brand and policies | 26% |
| MAGA should evolve into a broader populist movement less tied to Trump personally | 29% |
| MAGA should become more institutionalized within the Republican Party | 24% |
| MAGA should remain an insurgent outsider movement | 7% |
| Not sure | 14% |
Demographic Crosstabs
| Response | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| MAGA should remain loyal to Trump's specific brand and policies | 23% | 31% |
| MAGA should evolve into a broader populist movement less tied to Trump personally | 32% | 25% |
| MAGA should become more institutionalized within the Republican Party | 30% | 17% |
| MAGA should remain an insurgent outsider movement | 7% | 7% |
| Not sure | 8% | 20% |
True Successor to MAGA
In your view, who is the true successor to the MAGA movement — and why?
(N = 509) • Asked only of self-identified MAGA members.Open-end responses analyzed by a large-language-model (LLM). Key themes and example responses shown below.
“JD Vance because his values are MAGA values”
“Probably JD Vance as he’s closest to Trump and was picked by him.”
“JD Vance. As current VP he is part of maga now”
“JD Vance has the strength to carry on the movement, he is not afraid of not being politically correct, takes pride in America and wants to keep us safe and prosperous”
“JD Vance — Because he can continue the success started by DJT.”
“Donald Trump”
“Trump. He is the only name i hear associated with maga”
“President Trump would be the successor to the MAGA movement because he started it.”
“Trump is irreplaceable so there will be no "true successor."”
“Donald Trump remains the central figure because he originated it and still commands the strongest base behind MAGA”
“The American people”
“We the people…we must maintain our constitutional republic”
“The American people are. President’s come and go but the people remain.”
“I’m not sure there is a successor. It’s a movement of the people, not just one person.”
“American citizens, because it should not be focused or controlled by an individual or small group”
“Marco Rubio”
“Marco Rubio because his policies place Americans first.”
“Marco Rubio brings a level headed, intelligent approach”
“Marco Rubio. A true leader who loves this country.”
“Marco Rubio. Because he’ll get the strong backing from the MAGA movement.”
“Elon Musk... The only other person I trust”
“In my view, Vivek Ramaswamy is the true successor to the MAGA movement. This is due to his policies and leadership.”
“Tucker Carlson, And after tucker the torch will be passed to nick fuentes”
“Hegseth & Homan. 100% Americans”
“Should have been charlie Kirk. Spiritual leader”
“No one stands out in particular”
“One hasn't emerged yet.”
“The next Republican President.”
“Future Republican leaders because it is a Republican movement.”
“Whomever is the next Republican Presidential Candidate because if they are elected, they will be the successor.”
“Ron DeSantis. He walks the walk, is very consistent and he has the background”
“Ron DeSantis. Executive leadership”
“Ron DeSantis because his common sense policies put american citizens first.”
“I think Ron DeSantis has the leadership qualities to take America in the right direction.”
“Possible Ron DeSantis—he has been pushing social reform to get us back to a more moral society.”
“Donald Trump Jr because he’s his son.”
“Donald trump jr its the obvious choice”
“Donald Trump Junior. The others will eventually move toward their own opinion.”
“I believe Donald Trump Jr because he is directly related to his father”
Survey Details
Verasight collected data for this project from April 21, 2026 to April 23, 2026. The sample consists of 2,000 United States adults.
The sampling criteria for this survey were:
- US resident
- Adult (age 18+)
The selection criteria for the final sample were:
- Passed all data quality assurance checks, outlined below
The data are weighted to match the March 2026 Current Population Survey on age, race/ethnicity, sex, income, education, region, and metropolitan status, as well as to a running three-year average of partisanship distributions from the Pew Research Center NPORS benchmarking surveys and population benchmarks of 2024 vote. The margin of sampling error, which accounts for the design effect and is calculated using the classical random sampling formula, is +/- 2.3%.
All respondents were recruited via email from the Verasight Community, which is composed of individuals recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting. All Verasight community members are verified via multi-step authentication, including providing an SMS response from a mobile phone registered with a major U.S. carrier (e.g., no VOIP or internet phones) as well as within-survey technology, including verifying the absence of non-human responses with technologies such as Google reCAPTCHA v3. Those who exhibit low-quality response behaviors over time, such as straight-lining or speeding, are also removed and prohibited from further participation in the community. Verasight Community members receive points for taking surveys that can be redeemed for Venmo or PayPal payments, gift cards, or charitable donations. Respondents are never routed from one survey to another and receive compensation for every invited survey, so there is never an incentive to respond strategically to survey qualification screener questions.
To further ensure data quality, the Verasight data team implements a number of post-data collection quality assurance procedures, including confirming that all responses correspond with U.S. IP addresses, confirming no duplicate respondents, verifying the absence of non-human responses, and removing any respondents who failed in-survey attention and/or straight-lining checks. The Verasight data team also reviewed open-ended items to ensure no responses contained nonsensical, inappropriate, or non-sequitur text. Respondents that completed the survey in less than 30% of the median completion time were removed.
Unmeasured error in this or any other survey may exist. Verasight is a member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative.