Verasight September National Survey: Prediction Markets
Survey results from a nationally representative sample of US adults aged 18+.
Key Takeaways
Prediction Market Familiarity
Before today, had you heard of prediction markets — websites where people can bet money on things like elections, interest rates, or who will win an award?
(N = 1,500)Demographic Crosstabs
| Response | 18-29 | 30-49 | 50-64 | 65+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes, and I've used one | 15% | 13% | 4% | 2% |
| Yes, but I've never used one | 71% | 66% | 68% | 71% |
| No, I hadn't heard of these | 14% | 20% | 27% | 26% |
Weighted column percentages.
Trust in Information Sources
How much do you trust each of these to give you accurate information about the economy and about what's likely to happen?
(N = 1,500)Demographic Crosstabs
Federal government agencies
| Response | 18-29 | 30-49 | 50-64 | 65+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A great deal | 9% | 5% | 4% | 3% |
| A fair amount | 40% | 29% | 30% | 38% |
| Not much | 35% | 35% | 40% | 36% |
| Not at all | 13% | 25% | 24% | 21% |
| Not sure | 4% | 5% | 2% | 3% |
National news organizations
| Response | 18-29 | 30-49 | 50-64 | 65+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A great deal | 11% | 6% | 5% | 8% |
| A fair amount | 44% | 36% | 31% | 38% |
| Not much | 28% | 32% | 33% | 30% |
| Not at all | 14% | 22% | 28% | 21% |
| Not sure | 3% | 4% | 2% | 3% |
Public opinion polls
| Response | 18-29 | 30-49 | 50-64 | 65+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A great deal | 5% | 6% | 5% | 3% |
| A fair amount | 41% | 37% | 32% | 36% |
| Not much | 34% | 38% | 40% | 41% |
| Not at all | 14% | 14% | 20% | 16% |
| Not sure | 5% | 5% | 3% | 4% |
Betting markets (where people wager money on future events)
| Response | 18-29 | 30-49 | 50-64 | 65+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A great deal | 4% | 7% | 2% | 1% |
| A fair amount | 15% | 21% | 19% | 10% |
| Not much | 28% | 32% | 30% | 29% |
| Not at all | 43% | 32% | 39% | 46% |
| Not sure | 9% | 9% | 10% | 14% |
Social media
| Response | 18-29 | 30-49 | 50-64 | 65+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A great deal | 9% | 4% | 3% | 3% |
| A fair amount | 29% | 22% | 17% | 11% |
| Not much | 41% | 38% | 42% | 40% |
| Not at all | 18% | 32% | 37% | 43% |
| Not sure | 3% | 4% | 2% | 4% |
Your own experience and people you know
| Response | 18-29 | 30-49 | 50-64 | 65+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A great deal | 26% | 25% | 27% | 24% |
| A fair amount | 50% | 51% | 53% | 56% |
| Not much | 17% | 15% | 12% | 13% |
| Not at all | 4% | 5% | 5% | 3% |
| Not sure | 4% | 4% | 3% | 4% |
Weighted column percentages.
Polls vs. Betting Markets
Imagine it's a week before an election. A well-known public opinion poll shows Candidate A ahead. At the same time, a betting market, where people wager real money on the outcome, has Candidate B as the favorite. Which do you think is more likely to be right about who wins?
(N = 1,500)Demographic Crosstabs
| Response | 18-29 | 30-49 | 50-64 | 65+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The poll | 33% | 26% | 26% | 29% |
| The betting market | 18% | 24% | 21% | 18% |
| They're equally likely to be right | 30% | 30% | 32% | 29% |
| Not sure | 18% | 20% | 21% | 24% |
Weighted column percentages.
Most Trusted Election Forecaster
If you wanted to know who was going to win a big election, which of these would you trust most? Order these options by how much you trust them, with 1 being the most trusted.
(N = 1,500)| Item | Ranked 1st | Ranked 2nd | Ranked 3rd | Ranked 4th | Ranked 5th | Ranked 6th | Top 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Experts and analysts on the news | 33% | 22% | 16% | 13% | 8% | 8% | 71% |
| Public opinion polls | 24% | 28% | 20% | 14% | 8% | 6% | 72% |
| Talking to people you know | 20% | 17% | 19% | 20% | 15% | 9% | 56% |
| Betting markets | 11% | 11% | 15% | 16% | 20% | 27% | 37% |
| What the candidates and campaigns say | 7% | 13% | 15% | 19% | 21% | 25% | 35% |
| What you see on social media | 5% | 8% | 14% | 18% | 28% | 26% | 28% |
Survey Details
Verasight collected data for this project from September 16-September 21, 2026. The sample consists of 1,500 United States adults.
The sampling criteria for this survey were:
- US resident
- Adult (age 18+)
The selection criteria for the final sample were:
- Passed all data quality assurance checks, outlined below
The data are weighted to match the August 2026 Current Population Survey on age, race/ethnicity, sex, income, education, region, and metropolitan status, as well as to a running three-year average of partisanship distributions from the Pew Research Center NPORS benchmarking surveys and population benchmarks of 2024 vote. The margin of sampling error, which accounts for the design effect and is calculated using the classical random sampling formula, is +/- 2.6%.
All respondents were recruited via email from the Verasight Community, which is composed of individuals recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting. All Verasight community members are verified via multi-step authentication, including providing an SMS response from a mobile phone registered with a major U.S. carrier (e.g., no VOIP or internet phones) as well as within-survey technology, including verifying the absence of non-human responses with technologies such as Google reCAPTCHA v3. Those who exhibit low-quality response behaviors over time, such as straight-lining or speeding, are also removed and prohibited from further participation in the community. Verasight Community members receive points for taking surveys that can be redeemed for Venmo or PayPal payments, gift cards, or charitable donations. Respondents are never routed from one survey to another and receive compensation for every invited survey, so there is never an incentive to respond strategically to survey qualification screener questions.
To further ensure data quality, the Verasight data team implements a number of post-data collection quality assurance procedures, including confirming that all responses correspond with U.S. IP addresses, confirming no duplicate respondents, verifying the absence of non-human responses, and removing any respondents who failed in-survey attention and/or straight-lining checks. The Verasight data team also reviewed open-ended items to ensure no responses contained nonsensical, inappropriate, or non-sequitur text. Respondents that completed the survey in less than 30% of the median completion time were removed.
Unmeasured error in this or any other survey may exist. Verasight is a member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative.
Reading the crosstabs
Crosstab figures are weighted column percentages. Respondents with no value on a banner variable are left out of that banner’s columns. Subgroup estimates carry wider margins of error than the full sample’s ±2.6 percentage points.
Percentages are rounded to whole numbers and may not sum to 100. Figures in the key takeaways are computed from unrounded values, so a figure can differ from the sum of the displayed rows by one point.